It’s been three weeks since the INC-5.2 negotiations closed without agreement on a consolidated treaty text. Now, we’re in limbo waiting to hear when the next continuation (INC-5.3) will be convened. The original ambition to finalize a global treaty on plastic pollution by the end of 2025 is increasingly uncertain.
If you need a recap on how we got to INC-5.2, check my post from last year about INC-5.
In the absence of consensus, new ideas are gaining traction. There’s talk of a “coalition of the willing”, regions like Europe and California – the world’s third and fourth largest economies – developing their own agreement. Essentially, this would be a coalition of major plastic consumers. Another idea circulating is the creation of a new protocol under the Basel Convention, which could incorporate many of the measures discussed in Geneva.
What’s clear to most observers is that continuing with the current approach is unlikely to produce a treaty anytime soon. There’s increasing pressure to change the voting rules and eliminate the Consensus Rule Paralysis, which allows a small group to block progress.
Many reflections echo the conclusion of INC-5: “No treaty is better than a weak treaty,” and frustration continues over how a small group of like-minded countries has stalled progress—particularly around establishing plastic production caps. Still, I’m more convinced than ever that momentum is building around the cost of inaction.
Why Businesses Can’t Wait
While some might assume companies should pause plastic mitigation efforts until a treaty is finalized, the reality is quite the opposite. The past three years of negotiations – starting with INC-1 in Uruguay in 2022 – have surfaced a wealth of research and data. This information has been widely disseminated, raising awareness among companies, employees, sustainability practitioners, and consumers alike.
A treaty may not be in place yet, but businesses are already exposed to real and growing risks. Political delays do not change the fact that plastic pollution is costing businesses, societies, and ecosystems today. WWF estimates the lifetime societal cost of plastic produced in 2019 at US$3.7 trillion, and marine plastic pollution alone imposed up to US$19 billion in 2018 through its impact on tourism, fishing, aquaculture, and cleanup efforts.
These effects represent material risks to businesses, not just in terms of sustainability, but also in reputational damage and stranded assets. Product portfolios are facing mounting liabilities. Companies must act now to reduce plastic risk, differentiate themselves, attract capital, and build resilience in tomorrow’s circular economy.
Those who wait will pay the price later.
Evidence of Urgency: The Data Speaks for Itself.
Production (Source: Berkeley Lab)
- 8.5% of global gas demand is attributable to plastic production
- 12% of oil demand attributable to plastic production
- 5.3% of annual global greenhouse gas emissions
Consumption & Disposal (Sources: OECD, UNEP)
- 69 kg of plastic waste per person annually in Japan and Korea
- 114 kg in European OECD countries
- 221 kg in the U.S. (more than 3 times the amount generated in Japan and Korea)
- 22% of global plastic waste is mismanaged, resulting in land and sea pollution
- 19–23 million tonnes of plastic enter aquatic ecosystems annually
- Only 9% of plastic waste is recycled globally
Health Crisis (Source: Nature)
- 4,000 chemicals in plastics are hazardous
- 16,000 chemicals are used in or contained within plastic production
Corporate Profits
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